2026 United States Midterm Election Model
Projecting Outcomes Through Polls and Trends
Polling
Projections
House of Representatives
Interactive Map
If the Democratic Party by 2026 has a national lead of D+10:
Table
| STATE | DISTRICT | DEMOCRAT 2024 | REPUBLICAN 2024 | DEMOCRAT 2026 | REPUBLICAN 2026 | WINNER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Alaska | AK01 | 48.776 | 51.224 | 53.786 | 46.214 | Democrat |
| 1 | Arizona | AZ01 | 48.093 | 51.907 | 53.105 | 46.895 | Democrat |
| 2 | Arizona | AZ02 | 45.509 | 54.477 | 50.520 | 49.480 | Democrat |
| 3 | Arizona | AZ06 | 47.487 | 49.997 | 53.722 | 46.278 | Democrat |
| 4 | California | CA22 | 46.579 | 53.421 | 51.590 | 48.410 | Democrat |
| 5 | California | CA41 | 48.309 | 51.691 | 53.320 | 46.680 | Democrat |
| 6 | Colorado | CO03 | 45.817 | 50.799 | 52.435 | 47.565 | Democrat |
| 7 | Colorado | CO08 | 48.220 | 48.954 | 54.626 | 45.374 | Democrat |
| 8 | Florida | FL13 | 45.173 | 54.820 | 50.178 | 49.822 | Democrat |
| 9 | Iowa | IA01 | 49.787 | 49.980 | 54.904 | 45.096 | Democrat |
| 10 | Iowa | IA03 | 47.944 | 51.766 | 53.095 | 46.905 | Democrat |
| 11 | Michigan | MI10 | 44.995 | 51.125 | 51.823 | 48.177 | Democrat |
| 12 | Michigan | MI07 | 46.563 | 50.281 | 53.092 | 46.908 | Democrat |
| 13 | Montana | MT01 | 44.616 | 52.295 | 51.047 | 48.953 | Democrat |
| 14 | Nebraska | NE02 | 49.073 | 50.927 | 54.081 | 45.919 | Democrat |
| 15 | New Jersey | NJ07 | 46.367 | 51.769 | 52.260 | 47.740 | Democrat |
| 16 | New York | NY01 | 44.293 | 48.964 | 52.508 | 47.492 | Democrat |
| 17 | New York | NY17 | 45.822 | 47.673 | 54.018 | 45.982 | Democrat |
| 18 | Pennsylvania | PA10 | 49.368 | 50.632 | 54.373 | 45.627 | Democrat |
| 19 | Pennsylvania | PA07 | 49.496 | 50.504 | 54.501 | 45.499 | Democrat |
| 20 | Pennsylvania | PA08 | 49.188 | 50.812 | 54.195 | 45.805 | Democrat |
| 21 | Virginia | VA02 | 46.896 | 50.738 | 53.045 | 46.955 | Democrat |
| 22 | Wisconsin | WI03 | 48.600 | 51.325 | 53.647 | 46.353 | Democrat |